Sinema Buns

As I think about the recent mid-term elections, I find myself very proud of my home State, Arizona. Though Arizona did stand for President Trump in 2016 as he gained 49% of the Statewide Vote (1,252,401) and all 11 of their Electoral College votes... the recent mid-terms indicate to me that Trump support in the State is not necessarily as strong as the 2016 election would indicate.

For one thing, if we look back at the 2012 election, Mitt Romney also received all 11 electoral college votes, but he managed to secure the support of Arizona with 53% of the voters (1,233,654 voters).  That would indicate a noticeable percentage drop in support for Trump verses the Republican candidate in the previous election.

As mentioned in my previous note, I was pretty shocked in 2016 to realize that Arizona had fallen for the narcissist Trump.  Though I can relate to the trepidation of my fellow Arizonans over the qualifications that Hillary Clinton possessed...I did expect more people to see Trump for what he really is. I was very wrong!

But, maybe not so terribly wrong.  If you closely examine what transpired during the 2018 Arizona midterms, there is some signs that could provide some slight glimmer of hope that Trump support in Arizona is not as strong as indicated.

As we rolled through 2016 and beyond, Arizona was considered a stronghold of Republican power. Arizona had two Republican Senators, John McCain and Jeff Flake.  Arizona's House delegation of 9 was made up of a mixture of 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats.  Interestingly, both McCain and Flake were known as  mavericks, not always towing the Party or Trump line.  And both have had significant moments of standing firm against the constant barrage of Trump craziness.  I think Arizona has always had a certain love for political mavericks.

In my mind, this is the point when the trouble for Trump's dominance first gained breath and effected the Arizona Midterms.  Senator Jeff Flake would not follow the script Trump would have had him take. Flake spoke out against Trump often. Certainly, because of this, his poll numbers suffered. Flake, a  pretty solid libertarian Republican in the mold of Reagan and Goldwater...did not approve of Trump policy or process,  and this included speaking out against Trump's policies on Trade restrictions.  Thus began an interesting timeline.

• October 25, 2017 - Jeff Flake announces he will not seek reelection for the Arizona Senate. This opens the mid-term election wide open for his Senate Seat, a Republican seat.
• August 25, 2017 - John McCain passes away.  A blow to the Nation and to Arizona, Senator McCain was not due for reelection during the 2018 mid-terms.  The Arizona Governor would select the retired long term Arizona Senator Jon Kyl, a Republican,  to take McCain's seat temporarily. Senator McCain, a war hero, a statesman, a family man, and a maverick...Arizona will miss him greatly.
• August 29, Martha McSally - a more moderate Republican wins the Republican Primary to replace Jeff Flake, outpacing Trump stalwarts like Kelli Ward and Sheriff Joe Arpaio. McSally, represented the Arizona 2nd District in Congress. This would create a new opening in the 2nd District for the 2018 mid-term elections.
• August 29, Kyrsten Sinema wins the Democrat nomination for the Jeff Flake seat. This would mean Sinema's Congressional 9th District Seat would be wide open for the 2018 mid-terms also.
• November 6, 2018 -  In somewhat of a surprise, Sinema defeats McSally for the vacated  Jeff Flake Senate seat.  The Arizona Senate delegation, for the first time in many years, is now split down the middle.  Sinema's election is notable in many ways, including her becoming the first female to become a Senator in Arizona. 
• Sinema's 9th District seat is won by Democrat Greg Stanton. 
• McSally's 2nd District seat is won by Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, meaning that not only did McSally lose her bid for the Senate, but her Congressional seat was turned over to a Democrat.
• The Arizona Congressional delegation now consists of 1 Republican Senator, 1 Democratic Senator, 5 Democrat Representatives, and 4 Republican Senators.  
• December 17, 2018 - Arizona Governor Doug Ducey announces the selection of Martha McSally to replace Jon Kyl in the Senate seat up until the 2020 election.  

That chain of events is quite remarkable and demonstrates for me a serious weakening of support for Trump in Arizona.  Though Trump may not have appreciated McCain nor Flake very much, their replacement by Sinema and McSally certainly can not thrill him.  And the loss of McSally's Republican seat in the House also had to be a blow for him.

It will be interesting as we move into 2019 how both Sinema and McSally respond to Trump overtures.  Though Sinema is considered moderate for a Democrat, I have quite a bit of anticipation that she may still stand mostly to the left of Trump. As for McSally, perhaps her defeat in 2018 can help lean her closer to the middle too.  Her record will be interesting to see.  She will have a desire to be electable in 2020 to retain her Senate seat, it is possible she may have learned that  Arizona is not another Trump bastion. If nothing else, she will certainly be influenced by those thoughts.

Don't you just love Arizona!

Cheers, nca

p.s.  Some years back I was able to meet Jeff Flake.  He came across as someone real, someone you could talk to. 
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